Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 10.747760 13.186057 15.912863 19.168373 22.928500 27.114175 32.104129
2026-02-01 7.300945 10.400541 14.265179 19.349956 25.769154 33.505966 43.428823
2026-02-08 5.202137 8.405954 12.772298 18.969290 27.329406 37.997043 52.390504
2026-02-15 3.787440 6.882811 11.455917 18.389103 28.279284 41.500766 60.074581
2026-02-22 3.067890 6.171659 11.080329 18.933552 30.642346 46.868498 70.370945
2026-03-01 2.362515 5.289751 10.255028 18.636258 31.680295 50.386288 78.266591
2026-03-08 1.885013 4.673743 9.722197 18.665942 33.121533 54.473940 87.082518
2026-03-15 1.404171 3.909903 8.785538 17.884437 33.186887 56.491006 92.972932
2026-03-22 1.187870 3.630795 8.660778 18.427487 35.347465 61.699372 103.700800
2026-03-29 0.983504 3.316188 8.406961 18.693434 37.042940 66.252027 113.620777
2026-04-05 0.824303 3.060572 8.220974 19.044536 38.879206 71.085172 124.134760
2026-04-12 0.695042 2.840352 8.066736 19.424424 40.768879 76.067934 135.049264
2026-04-19 0.526823 2.457342 7.515246 19.028557 41.377067 79.206479 143.560719
2026-04-26 0.423663 2.230985 7.282254 19.251218 43.131460 84.349423 155.520723
2026-05-03 0.316448 1.930871 6.798827 18.875009 43.724082 87.551239 164.476458
2026-05-10 0.227738 1.640045 6.262909 18.297307 43.859748 89.945837 172.178731
2026-05-17 0.189713 1.541440 6.228574 18.839630 46.206085 96.270848 186.579370
2026-05-24 0.139780 1.344382 5.858672 18.543505 46.843169 99.593786 196.072102
2026-05-31 0.107178 1.208938 5.638830 18.573071 48.132049 104.123893 207.745154
2026-06-07 0.070892 1.003395 5.127859 17.794652 47.658832 105.406259 213.889120
2026-06-14 0.058386 0.951081 5.128154 18.335555 50.029594 112.028232 229.473811
2026-06-21 0.045532 0.877486 5.030566 18.600455 51.811982 117.615028 243.417240
2026-06-28 0.035882 0.817496 4.967525 18.950181 53.800006 123.662805 258.349064